Why Dutton feels confident in attack mode

“I think I speak for the majority of Australians here who are proud of our country.”

As they head back to their electorates, dispirited Labor MPs are no longer quite so ready to dismiss the impact of that sort of assault. After some confusion, acting Prime Minister Richard Marles emerged to argue there would indeed be a “function” in Australia House on January 26, without specifying what it would be.

“What we’re seeing from the leader of the opposition here is a shameless attempt to beat something out of nothing,” Marles argued.

Dutton is certainly beating something rather loudly. He may still not be too popular with the public. But the overwhelming defeat of the Voice referendum last October has reminded his party and voters that Anthony Albanese’s reading of national sentiment can be badly off kilter.

There’s no doubt the public mood has turned away from the general approbation of Labor over its first year of government. As memories of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership fade, Labor’s own end of year has definitely been much messier than the government expected several months ago.

Jim Chalmers will try to project the image of an economically responsible government reshaping and investing in a better future when he delivers the mid-year budget update Wednesday.

None of that is likely to do much for the mood in millions of households feeling so bruised by the cost of living.

All those busy high-end restaurants where it’s hard to book a table in the pre-Christmas rush are misleading in terms of what’s happening in the suburbs where Dutton is appealing for a hearing.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment released on Tuesday showed a slight lift in the gloom compared with last month, after the Reserve Bank kept interest rates on hold in December. It still means that 2023 marks the second-worst year for consumer sentiment in almost 50 years of this survey.

Policy contradictions

All this is hardly terminal for the government. It is certainly dangerous unless there’s a more persuasive and forceful response that does more to drown out the Dutton drumbeat of complaint.

For now, supposed good news announcements like China’s lifting of restrictions on three Australian abattoirs tend to get overwhelmed by a general sense of a lack of government focus and coherence.

This is compounded by various policy contradictions playing out, with record immigration intersecting with a housing crisis and high interest rates.

Dutton is keen to take advantage of these vulnerabilities to link them together in his own version of a politically compelling narrative.

His latest barb is Labor’s decision to exclude tradies from accessing a new specialist skills immigration category for workers earning over $135,000 a year who have now been promised a seven-day turnaround for visa applications.

“What sort of government, at the time of the building crisis, when you can’t get a tradie and you certainly can’t afford one, what sort of government decides to close the door on tradies coming into Australia?,” the opposition leader demanded. “It’s completely the wrong decision and it’s going to have a negative impact on housing affordability – the complete opposite of what the government is promising.”

Dutton’s view is likely to get more traction in the construction industry than Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil’s insistence she is not making it harder for tradies from overseas to get visas – merely ensuring there is proof of genuine shortages.

The Master Builders Association says it is stunned by this decision where there’s such clear evidence of dire shortages of skilled and well-paid blue-collar workers as well as qualified white-collar workers.

Dutton is also clearly determined to derail Labor’s claims of a coming fall in the record net immigration levels of over 500,000 people over the last year. He points out the government’s new estimate would still be much higher than it forecast in the May budget.

No doubt Dutton will mark the end of COP28 this week by emphasising the contrast between Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s thwarted efforts to have the climate conference declare the phasing out of fossil fuels and Australia’s reliance on coal, oil and gas for export revenue as well as domestic energy given the delays and massive cost of the green energy transition.

This certainly won’t attract committed Labor voters or the disenchanted Liberals who voted for the teals, only confirming the antagonism to Dutton and his conservative agenda. But the opposition leader is trying for a different audience in disaffected middle suburbia. Labor will hope most of them aren’t paying attention to Canberra politics as the year winds down and will return in a better mood to start 2024.