What happens if Biden were to step aside?

Would a younger candidate have a better hope of defeating Trump, 77, next year? A recent New York Times/Siena poll suggested Biden and Trump were neck and neck vying for the younger vote.

But who would that younger candidate be? And would this change calculations in the Republican race for the presidential nomination?

The plain answer is no one knows. But the implications for AUKUS and ANZUS are vital and complex.

California Governor Gavin Newsom is running already as a surrogate for Biden and would be an ambitious claimant for the nomination if Biden were to step back.

His debate last week with Florida Governor and Republican presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis, though it brought forth repeated denials he was running and a staunch defence of Biden’s record as president, is nevertheless an indication of his interest in the White House. Close aides say he is eyeing 2028, but Newsom has an eye now for the presidential image.

It was Newsom who, unusually for a US governor, met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in late October. Their talks covered climate change, technology and trade, and he visited the Great Wall for a photograph normally the preserve of presidential visitors to China.

Kevin Rudd, Australia’s ambassador to the US, is clearly impressed, telling the Washington correspondent Matthew Cranston he believes Newsom is well-placed to manage US-China relations, that the Californian appreciates the difference between the declaratory policy of campaign rhetoric on China and how that is later implemented in office. In contrast to the rhetoric on Capitol Hill on China, Newsom said, “We need to take the temperature down”.

But Newsom may end up a limp candidate. His progressive nature would attract fierce attacks from the right, including within the Democratic Party.

‘Soft on China’

He would certainly not be attractive to the hawks in Australia’s security establishment who played such an important part in setting the Coalition’s China policy.

Indeed, the Coalition would be very uncomfortable with him for being too soft on China. Recall that Malcolm Fraser when he became prime minister in 1975 had little time for Gerald Ford continuing the Nixon/Kissinger policy of détente with the USSR, seeing it as weakness in the face of persistent Soviet aggression. Indeed, it might be asked: how comfortable would Opposition Leader Peter Dutton be with any Democrat?

If Biden has to step aside before his term is complete, that of course means Vice President Kamala Harris steps up. But Harris is an unknown quantity in Australia and on US relations with allies such as Japan and South Korea. Some here say she has made no appreciable impression in key regional capitals.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer might be another candidate. But she was recently criticised for speaking out of both sides of her mouth on China, reducing her state’s reliance on China but spruiking forthcoming Chinese electric vehicle battery plants.

Other recognisable Democrat candidates do not abound. Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips has filed a long-shot bid, while it is conceivable, if unlikely, that Robert F Kennedy jnr, who only a month ago announced he was no longer challenging Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, might try to return to the party fold to defend family honour.

The other considerable unknown in Canberra is just where Trump in a second term might land on US relations with China and the Pacific allies.

Consider the record: his past venom about the cost to Washington of stationing US troops and military assets in Japan and South Korea; his absurd approaches to North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, his up-and-down romance with China’s Xi.

Then there is his strange attitude toward trade deficits, and he has said he will bring an end to the Biden administration’s subsidies to renewable industries, upon which some Australian miners and technology companies making electric vehicles batteries depend.

That’s also not to forget his affection for Russian President Vladimir Putin, his promise to pull back from Ukraine and bring peace within 24 hours, and all the important implications such a move would have for NATO allies and, for that matter, allies in North Asia and the Pacific.

While AUKUS continues to attract bipartisan congressional support, can any realistic Australian assessment of US domestic politics in the next 12 months and beyond say with any credibility that the project will remain somehow perpetually isolated from these currents?

We don’t know how a Republican Congress under Trump – who still despises the past web of alliances – will approach it. And just as the Americans have still not shared their technology, so Canberra has still not fronted up the cash to support an increase in the US industrial base.