Yesterday
Global shift in rate cut bets sparks Santa rally
A “dovish” pivot from the Fed last week has lit a fire under equities, which have correctly bet that global monetary settings are shifting gear.
- Updated
- Sarah Jones and Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Inflation
Beware economists who won’t admit they were wrong
From an economic point of view, 2023 will go down in the record books as one of the best years ever.
- Paul Krugman
- Opinion
- Opinion
The Fed should resist market bullying
The risk is that, to avoid unsettling market volatility, the Fed validates the market loosening with sizeable rate cuts but is forced to reverse course later.
- Mohamed El-Erian
This Month
Bond traders bet on aggressive rate cuts in 2024
They believe Friday’s US inflation report will confirm a cooling in prices and open the door for early rate cuts next year, despite the jawboning from Fed officials.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Opinion
These are the factors complicating investment decisions in 2024
Economic reality in 2024 is likely to be far less binary, and much more nuanced, than many market participants and policymakers believe.
- Rana Foroohar
- Analysis
- Federal Reserve
US rate cuts a boon for Biden in election year
Lower borrowing costs are set to bring relief to US voters in a presidential voting year after a long period of high inflation.
- James Politi and Colby Smith
Dow’s record outruns central banks, counts on aggressive rate cuts
The Fed is expected to be the first central bank to lower rates next year, ahead of the European Central Bank and Bank of England, and months before the RBA.
- Cecile Lefort and Joanne Tran
- Analysis
- Global economy
Anyone seen that US recession?
The US economy avoided a recession this year but, if history is any guide, it’s still a possibility.
- Matthew Cranston
Traders double down on RBA rate cuts after Fed pivot
Bond markets are pricing more aggressive monetary easing in the US and Australia after the Federal Reserve flagged a peak in interest rates.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Powell’s dovish genie is out of the bottle
The US Federal Reserve chairman said cutting rates had “now come into view”, and the markets ran with it.
- Matthew Cranston
Bets on UK rate cuts jump after surprise drop in growth
The UK economy shrank more than expected in October, setting the stage for another quarter of stagnation.
- Naomi Tajitsu
Markets trim rate cut bets before Fed meeting
Hotter-than-expected US inflation data fuelled speculation Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will push back on rate cut expectations at the last meeting for 2023.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- RBA
Bullock’s interest rate communication job just got harder
The disclosure of RBA board votes and public remarks by board members will make it more challenging for Michele Bullock to control the central bank’s message.
- John Kehoe
Bond funds set to break two-year losing streak
Australian fixed-income managers are on track to finally generate a return this year amid signs the Reserve Bank is done with raising rates.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Federal budget
Fiscal policy must belatedly step up to inflation fight
Australia’s treasurers could do more to help the Reserve Bank to navigate the narrow path to a soft landing and reduce the need for further interest rate increases.
- Cherelle Murphy
Powell under pressure to reveal rate cut plan
The Federal Reserve chairman faces a communication challenge this week as investors think a cooling economy means that tightening is over.
- Colby Smith
ASX to climb ahead of a big week of rate decisions
A robust US jobs report has done little to derail bond markets expectations that central banks will start to cut interest rates in 2024.
- Sarah Jones
- Opinion
- Sharemarket
Why investors were right to ignore the warnings of 2023
If the past year taught investors anything, it’s that being selective and diversified is key to riding the economic cycle. And timing the market is a fool’s game.
- Arian Neiron
Bank of Canada says immigration curbs long-term inflation
A record-high influx of newcomers has added workers to tight labour markets and significantly improved the country’s potential growth, an official said.
- Laura Dhillon Kane
$A predicted to sink below US60¢ next year
The Australian dollar is forecast to drop below to levels not seen since the pandemic, before rebounding next year once the Fed starts cuts rates aggressively.
- Cecile Lefort
