Major parties, teals squabble over NSW redistribution
The major parties and teal independents are at loggerheads over a pre-election redistribution of federal electorates in NSW which, Labor says, has the potential to affect the boundaries of the majority of seats in the state and, hence, the outcome of the next election,
Based on population growth projections, NSW, the nation’s most populous state, will have the number of electorates cut from 47 to 46 before the next election, with the Australian Electoral Commission to make a final decision by the second quarter of 2024.
Allegra Spender and Zali Steggall hold seats most at risk from a redistribution. Rhett Wyman
With the Albanese government clinging to a three-seat majority, and facing the real risk of being pushed into minority at the 2025 election, Labor is recommending the Liberal seat of Hughes, in Sydney’s south be abolished.
However, in its submission to the AEC, the Nationals say Anthony Albanese’s inner west seat of Grayndler, and the teal seat of North Sydney should be abolished.
The Liberal Party wants the western Sydney Labor seats of Blaxland and Watson, held respectively by cabinet ministers Jason Clare and Tony Burke, merged into a single seat called Watson.
In addition, the Liberals say the north shore seat of Warringah, held by independent Zali Steggall, should be abolished and a new marginal seat, to be named Bird Walton, established in the fast-growing western suburbs, near the Western Sydney Airport.
The proposed redistribution has also created tension among the teals, given Warringah and Wentworth, based on slow population growth projections, and being bordered by the ocean, are the most obvious targets for merger or abolition.
North Sydney independent Kylea Tink has argued for her seat to expand into Warringah and Bradfield, and boost its number of voters by 20,271 which would satisfy the enrolment requirement for the 2025 and 2028 elections, which is the period to be covered by the redistribution.
Ms Steggall has argued for her seats to be retained, albeit with adjusted boundaries, as has Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.
Malcolm Turnbull has gone into bat for his old seat of Wentworth, as has incumbent independent Allegra Spender, arguing that the Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections upon which the AEC relies have been wrong in the past.
“Given the obvious densification going on throughout the Wentworth areas, on what basis would there be a decrease in enrolment between now and 2028. Apartments are going up everywhere, there is pressure to build more, schools are packed,” Mr Turnbull said in his submission.
The AEC has stipulated that by April 10, 2028, an electorate must have a maximum of 134,157 electors and a minium 125,085.
In its submission, Labor says the redistribution “will require substantial alterations to the majority of electoral division boundaries”.
It recommends the simple abolition of Hughes by merging it with the Liberal-held Banks, and to give the name of Hughes to another electorate, given it belongs to a former prime minster.
But NSW Liberal Party state director Chris Stone said Labor’s was a predictable claim which would not address the reasons for the redistribution.
“Labor has put in their usual ambit claim. They abolish a Liberal seat (Hughes) and take another Liberal seat (Lindsay) and make it highly marginal,” he said.
“They also make their two most marginal seats (Gilmore and Bennelong) much less vulnerable.”
Mr Stone said the Liberal submission better reflected different patterns of population growth around NSW.
“We suggest abolishing two seats in the low or no growth suburbs north and south of the harbour, with a new seat in the outer south-west where population is growing rapidly.
“And we suggest minimal change to seats in regional NSW, where growth has been unusually strong as a result of the COVID pandemic.”
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