This Month
Shipping giants halt Red Sea route in blow to global trade
Maersk, the world’s second-biggest container shipper, and Hapag-Lloyd will not use the vital trade route after missile attacks made it unsafe for vessels.
- Updated
- Alaric Nightingale and Sanne Wass
- Analysis
- Perspective
Anyone seen that US recession?
The US economy avoided a recession this year but, if history is any guide, it’s still a possibility.
- Matthew Cranston
Argentina’s left vows resistance as Milei slashes budget
Union leaders called meetings after shock measures announced by the new president, while the left-leaning governor of Buenos Aires vowed to fight.
- Michael Stott
- Opinion
- Opinion
China faces the risk of a debt-deflation spiral
If deflation continues to eat into corporate profits, companies will cut wage growth, creating a vicious ‘loop’ of even weaker aggregate demand and deflation.
- Chetan Ahy
- Opinion
- Opinion
Upbeat predictions for global economy are not cause for optimism
The main concern is that too many policymakers seem more focused on reinvigorating inefficient growth engines than shifting towards more sustainable, forward-looking models.
- Mohamed El-Erian
- Updated
- Inflation
China’s consumer price drop worsens, fuelling deflation fears
China has been struggling with falling prices for much of this year, in contrast to many other parts of the world where central banks are focused on taming inflation.
- Updated
- Michael Smith
China Politburo raises expectations for ambitious 2024 GDP goal
Economic targets for 2024 will be set at the Communist Party’s annual economic work conference, expected to be held later this month.
- Bloomberg News
China’s exports grow for first time in six months
Exports grew 0.5 per cent from a year earlier in November, customs data showed, compared with a 6.4 per cent fall in October.
- Joe Cash
More pain to come for China’s economy
After a solid first quarter, investor and consumer confidence has wavered, as not only property but China’s export earnings have disappointed.
- Joe Leahy, Cheng Leng and Andy Lin
Global banks’ 2024 outlook is ‘negative’: Moody’s
The US rating firm says banks are poised to struggle as tight financial conditions and an expected economic slowdown sting.
- Timothy Moore
Oil price falls as latest OPEC+ output cuts fail to impress
Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq pledged extra reductions after an online meeting. Angola immediately rejected its new assigned quota.
- Updated
- Grant Smith, Salma El Wardany and Fiona MacDonald
November
US economy grew 5.2pc in third quarter, more than first estimated
The latest quarterly estimates show that US GDP grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years.
- Reade Pickert
China industrial profit growth eases as deflation persists
Lingering weaknesses within the world’s second-largest economy are weighing on activity.
- Zhu Lin
‘Biggest tax cut in history’ fails to lighten UK gloom
The Conservative government’s mini-budget was overshadowed by the dour prognostications of its own independent fiscal scrutineer.
- Hans van Leeuwen
- Opinion
- The AFR View
Thank Britain for why Australia isn’t Argentina
Trying to understand Argentina’s failure should also make Australians think more deeply about the sources of this country’s success.
- The AFR View
China struggles to spend its way out of economic crisis
Falling tax revenue and high local debt cast doubt on how much budgetary firepower Beijing really has.
- Joe Leahy
- Analysis
- Analysis
What’s really going on in the American economy?
There’s a surprising disconnect developing. People say they are gloomy about the economy but they are also spending, holidaying and job-switching.
- Updated
- Claire Cain Miller and Francesca Paris
Record airline profits fail to lure back investors
The MSCI index tracking global airlines is trading about 40 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. It has fallen more than 20 per cent since the start of July.
- Philip Georgiadis, Sylvia Pfeifer, Patrick Mathurin and Mercedes Ruehl
- Opinion
- Opinion
How disinflation is driving more social inequality
Letting central banks prop up fiscal spending and households was an idea that should have stayed in the dustbin of history.
- Adrian Blundell-Wignall
- Opinion
- Opinion
China’s rise as an economic superpower is reversing
China’s real long-term potential growth rate — the sum of new workers entering the labour force and output per worker — is now more like 2.5 per cent.
- Ruchir Sharma
